Internal Migration

Together with the economy, the theme of migration is central to the American election campaign. But the latter goes well beyond the electoral rhetoric, migrations are redrawing the socioeconomic map of the country and in doing so they alter traditional electoral choices. This is a discovery that leads us to reflect on Trump's victory in 2016 thanks to the vote of the industrial states of the North, the famous blue wall, and on Biden's very small margins of victory in the same states in 2020. Is it possible that these electoral 'surprises' are due to the changed social composition of some states? And that therefore there will be more swing states, undecided states than predicted by the polls?

To answer this question, we need to analyse the impact of all migrations. Let's start with those of young families and young people and then move on to the others in the next episodes.

When we talk about migrants, we think of foreigners, a river always flooded that flows from south to north. Once it crosses the border it splits into several tributaries, a couple turn west and arrive in Texas and California, others, more numerous, turn east and flow towards Florida or northeast towards the rich states of the north-east. But this is only one type of migration, even if it is the one most discussed in the election campaign.

Diametrically opposite is the flow of retired migrants, mostly belonging to the baby boomer generation and that of their children and grandchildren, who we can define internal migrants, people who move from the big cities to the states of the west and of the south. This is a phenomenon that began about ten years ago and has been accelerating during Covid with regard to young people, who, faced with lockdowns and the possibility of working from home, have opted for the open spaces of the west and of the south of the country.

Internal migration has given rise to a large increase in population in some states, including Colorado. Over the last ten years, Colorado's population has grown by about 15 percent, reaching 5.8 million people. A corollary: a real estate speculation that the United States has not seen since the fifties and sixties.

After the endless expanses of South Dakota and eastern Wyoming, states whose population has remained stable, you arrive in Colorado and enter a torrent of cars, trucks and various automobiles that speed along six-lane roads. We are still in the West but it seems like we have fallen into the centre of Los Angeles during rush hour.

As you get closer to Denver, enormous suburbs, as big as small cities, open up on either side of the highway. The houses are all the same, semi-detached, condominiums, all attached to each other, with microscopic gardens and no trees. The advance of concrete is methodical and inexorable, strip after strip it eats up the green of the prairie as it dangerously and inexorably approaches the Continental Divide. And because internal migration shows no signs of abating and developers are unable to meet demand in real time, the home price index in Colorado has increased by about 49 percent from the first quarter of 2014 to the first quarter of 2024.

Denver is now surrounded by miles and miles of suburbs that from a distance look like mushroom colonies that sprung up after big storms. They have everything a family needs, from schools to swimming pools to sports centres. They also have everything young singles need, endless shopping malls, restaurants, clubs, movie theatres. And golf courses for the elderly, hospitals, physical therapists and all the brand-name supermarkets from Trader Joe's to Whole Foods. Internal migrants have left behind only the skyline of the big cities, they have brought the substance with them.

Internal migration has revolutionized the social fabric of Colorado. It used to be a Western state where people were laid back, wore cowboy boots, ate two-inch steaks and drank draft beer. Today there are fusion and vegan restaurants.

It was also, like neighbouring Montana and Wyoming, a traditionally Republican state, from 1920 to 2004 Colorado voted for the Republican candidate in the presidential elections. But things have changed in the last four elections in which Colorado voted Democrat.

According to the polls, Colorado will vote for Kamala Harris, it is possible, but not certain. Those who were born in Colorado associates the rising cost of living with internal migration and inflation and they are not at all happy. They also suffer from the fact that they cannot afford to live where they have always lived because real estate taxes have risen with the increase in property values. The politics of Covid, in particular, had a negative impact on the economy and created the homelessness crisis on top of the opioid crisis. Many believe that much of the responsibility of what is happening lies with the Biden administration that failed to manage Covid.

Colorado Springs, Colorado