How to Win the US Elections

Every democracy has a peculiar way to elect its president, prime minister, who ever is in charge at the very top. In the United States, the founding fathers made sure that the most populated states, i.e. those along the two costs, did not undermine the others, those in the middle, with a smaller population.

Therefore, each state has a specific number of electoral colleges, you can see the various amount in the map above. The winner of the race, is the candidate that collects the highest number of electoral colleges.

Here an interactive map from CNN

https://www.cnn.com/election/2024/electoral-college-map?game-id=2024-PG-CNN-ratings&game-view=map

In this election there are seven swing states, states that are unsure for whom to vote, and they are Pennsylvania (19 colleges), North Carolina (16 colleges), Georgia (16 colleges), Michigan (15 colleges), Wisconsin (10 colleges), Nevada (6 colleges), Arizona (11 colleges).

Some of them are part of the rust belt, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin the industrial area which traditionally voted democrats, the so called blue wall, but that in the 2016 elections switched to Trump. these are the states we are travelling across at the moment.

Each candidate is working out the numbers of the electoral colleges choosing which state to focus in the last weeks of the campaign. Trump is in Pennsylvania and so is Harris. This state may be the crucial one.

This is what the Financial Times writes about the swing states:

This year, there are seven swing states — and each features a razor-edge race inside 1.5 points, according to Financial Times poll tracking. Together they account for just 93 of the Electoral College’s 538 votes and 18 per cent of the population. But they are the target of all Trump’s and Harris’s campaign money and energy.

Within that subset of states is another important sliver of voters: the undecideds. An Ipsos poll released this week said that this group accounts for only 3 per cent of likely voters in the battleground states — a tiny number reflecting America’s deep polarisation. Winning a majority of these people who haven’t yet made up their minds could decide the election, giving them huge potential power.

                  Who are these undecided voters? Some are male union voters who once gravitated to left-wing Bernie Sanders but now lean to Trump; or suburban conservatives turned off by the Maga rhetoric. Others are Latinos wavering on Harris because of the US’s high cost of living, or young voters who were put off by President Joe Biden’s age but are now in play for Harris. Many are women — of all political stripes, but especially conservatives — motivated by restrictions imposed on abortion in recent years, a central campaign issue for Harris.

But the two campaigns are also trying to win another broader segment of the public: people disengaged from the political process. This century, turnout in US presidential elections among eligible voters has averaged between 54 per cent in 2000 and 67 per cent in 2020, leaving a big pool to draw from. Both sides are firing up their turnout machines in the swing states, though Trump’s campaign is winning a registration race in most battlegrounds.

Harrisburg, in Pennsylvania is a city that traditionally votes for democrats but this year it may switch. Below the city hall.

We have talked to some of the people in rust belt. Harris is failing to convince the blue collar, the blacks and the small businesses that she will look after them. Most of these people feel they have been abandoned by the democratic party which has become the party of the elite and the wealthy. in 2016 Trump won because it manages to convince this segment of the population of the rust belt that he was looking after them.

Here what the Wall Street Journal writes about it:

GRAND RAPIDS, Mich.—Democrats have privately grown worried about Kamala Harris’s standing among working-class voters in the crucial “blue wall” states—particularly in Michigan.

Donald Trump has assiduously courted union members and non-college-educated white voters with a message focused on high costs, manufacturing and the threat of China to the U.S. economy. Senior Democrats, including Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, want a sharper economic appeal from Harris and have conveyed those concerns to her campaign, according to people familiar with the conversations. They also want Harris to spend more time campaigning in the state.

Harrisburg 6 October